Polls don’t always tell the whole story regarding an election. They are using a sample of people to gauge the voting population’s mood before they head to the voting booth to do their business.
One trusted pollster that tends to get it right more than others is sounding the alarm that polls during the midterm election season are a bit off and is warning Democrats, in particular, that their leads in many polls aren’t as strong as they may think. Those believing polls showing Democrats winning may get a frightening dose of reality.
Robert Cahaly is an American pollster, founder and senior strategist of the Trafalgar Group. Cahaly was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates. He founded Trafalgar Group in 2016.
According to the Daily Wire, Robert Cahaly sat down with the site’s new show “Election Wire,” where Cahaly noted that Republicans are being severely underrepresented and the Democrats don’t have the numbers most polls are telling them they do.
Cahaly explained, “These submerged voters aren’t answering polls, they aren’t putting stickers on their cars, or signs in their yards, they’re not even posting on social media. They are under water. They’re not saying a word to anybody until election day.”
Cahaly continued, “Voters shouldn’t trust polls in the coming weeks, considering many pollsters failed to accurately predict the last three elections by highly favoring Democrats and undercounting Republicans.”
Cahaly added, “Polls have two purposes. They’re either to reflect the electorate, or they’re to affect the electorate, and too many of these media and university-based polls are designed to affect the electorate and are trying to create a false narrative quite often when there’s not one.”
When speaking with Dan Bongino who asked the Trafalgar Chief, “Why do polls continuously get it wrong regarding GOP support?” Cahaly answered, “It boils down to some very simple reasons, the primary one is that Biden’s comments about Republicans have driven them into not declaring who they want in office.”
“This year, our fear is that people are not going to be polled that are Trump supporters because all that Biden has said, and all the apparent attacks, and people coming after them and they’re just hesitant even to participate,” Cahaly told Bongino.
Cahaly’s strategy allows him to get around this issue by asking people who they believe their neighbors are voting for, giving Trafalgar a better sample.
But here is the deal, even with Republicans under sampled, many mainstream polls are already signifying Republicans are doing very well. If Trafalgar is right, and they have a record of being more on the accurate side, then the rumored red wave is very real.
We appreciate our friends at Republican Daily, Daily Wire, and Dan Bongino for contributions in this article.
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