Elections come down to turn out. One of the most important measurements pollsters look at is “enthusiasm” that voters have for their candidate.
The more excited they are for a candidate, the more inclined they are to go to the polls and vote for them.
A brand new poll reveals that President Donald Trump is winning that battle over Democratic candidate Joe Biden in North Carolina, a crucial swing state that both sides are fighting hard to win.
Trump now leads Biden by 49 percent to 47 percent in North Carolina.
Dr. Peter Francia, Director of the East Carolina University Center for Survey Research, said Trump is trending the right direction and performing well with minorities in the state.
“Our poll results show that there are few undecided voters and few voters who are willing to change their mind, whether they are currently Biden or Trump supporters. This suggests that campaign efforts to persuade voters is unlikely to make a significant difference,” Francia said.
“Instead, the outcome of the Trump-Biden contest in North Carolina will hinge on which party – Democrats or Republicans – does a better job of turning out their supporters to vote. By extension, the results in the Trump-Biden election will almost certainly affect several of the highly competitive down-ballot races as well,” Francia added. President Trump leads Biden among white voters by a 25 point margin, 61 percent to 36 percent, while former Vice President Biden leads the president among black voters by a 66 point margin, 79 percent to 13 percent.
There is a significant gender gap when it comes to presidential support among black voters.
Twenty-one percent of black male voters support President Trump, while only seven percent of black female voters back the president.
In the head-to-head matchup, 74 percent of black male voters say they intend to vote for Biden, while 21 percent say they intend to vote for Trump. In contrast, 82 percent of black female voters say they intend to vote for Biden, while only seven percent say they intend to vote for Trump.
Black voters make up 20 percent of poll respondents, while white voters account for 70 percent of poll respondents, a demographic mix comparable to 2016 voting behavior.
In 2016, President Trump won eight percent support from black voters, so his support among black voters in North Carolina in this poll is five points higher than it was nationally in 2016.
That 13 percent support for the president among black voters in North Carolina is lower than the 19 percent to 20 percent support the president receives nationally among those voters, according to three recent polls.
Trump won North Carolina’s 15 electoral college votes in 2016, defeating Hillary Clinton there by a margin of 3.8 points.
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