NEW POLL: Republican Voters Continue to View Trump as Party’s Leader

With less than three months from the midterm elections, a new USA Today/Ipsos poll finds that former President Trump continues to be the Republican Party leader by a nice majority.

According to the poll, they also believe that Joe Biden can’t win the election in 2024, and he only has 44% of support from his party members polled.

President Trump has a commanding 59% compared to Biden’s 44%.

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Detailed Findings

1. For Republican voters, former President Trump continues to be seen as the head of the Republican Party.

  • When asked if a list of positive traits applies to Trump, a majority say each one applies (three in five or more). At the top of the list: 90% say Trump is willing to use all tools at his disposal to get things done, 87% say he fights for the people he represents, and 86% feel he fights against woke corporations and cancel culture.
  • Regardless of who will be at the top of the ticket in 2024, these voters say the most important trait for the Republican nominee is someone who will stand up for the freedom and dignity of all Americans. More than eight in ten (82%) say that applies to Trump.
  • Four in five Republican voters (82%) believe Trump can win the next presidential election. While majorities among most demographics are high on his re-election chances, voters that believe the Republican Party’s views are more conservativethan their own (75%) are less likely to believe President Trump can win the election.
  • Along these lines, nearly three in five Republican voters (59%) believe President Trump should be the Republican nominee for president in 2024, compared to 41% who believe the Republican party needs change and he should not run.
    • Those with a household income of less than $50,000 a year (69%) and those without college degrees (66%) are more likely than their counterparts to believe President Trump should run in 2024.

2. ​​​​​Despite associating President Biden with important traits, Democratic voters are less supportive of him being the party’s nominee in 2024.

  • The vast majority of Democratic voters agree that President Biden has significant government experience (92%) and major policy knowledge and expertise (86%). A similarly strong percentage say he is focused on bringing the country together (85%) and fights for the people he represents (83%).
  • However, despite possessing these qualities, Democrats are not as confident in Biden as Republicans are in Trump, though a majority still think Biden can win. Three in five Democratic voters believe he can win the next presidential election.
    • Women (55%) and those aged 18-34 (53%) are less likely than men (67%) and those ages 55+ (65%) to say that President Biden can win the next presidential election.
  • At the same time, a majority (56%) of Democratic voters believe it’s time for a change within the party and President Biden should not run for re-election in 2024. Forty-four percent say he should be the nominee and deserves re-election. This sentiment holds true across all age groups and ideologies within this group of voters.
     

3. Among all Americans, the Democratic Party is perceived as more inclusive and willing to compromise than Republicans. In the immediate aftermath of the Inflation Reduction Act’s passage, they also enjoy an advantage of legislative efficacy in Washington. Republicans, however, take the cake on being better for the economy and tough on crime – cementing their advantage on two major issues for the public right now.

  • Americans are more likely to view the Democratic Party as willing to compromise to get things done (29%) and inclusive (31%) than the Republican Party (16% each).
  • In contrast, the Republican Party is more likely to be seen as good for the economy (34%) and tough on crime (33%) than the Democratic Party (24% and 15%, respectively).
  • Of note, nearly half of Americans (46%) believe inflation and increasing costs are the main problem currently facing the country. Gun violence (26%) and crime (17%) are included in a crowded second tier of issues.
  • By a nearly two-to-one margin, Americans see the Democratic Party as more effective than the Republican Party at pushing their agenda in Washington (27% vs 15%), although similar percentages say both parties (22%) or neither (24%) are effective.
    • Republican voters are more likely to say the Democratic Party is more effective at pushing their agenda (31% vs 21% for the Republican Party); a similar percentage of Democratic voters say the same of the Democratic Party (32%).
  • Though Democrats hold an advantage on efficacy in Washington, more Republican voters say Republican leaders can win elections than Democratic voters say about Democrats. The same is true when it comes to how each party’s base feels about their leadership being effective communicators and campaigners. Forty-three percent of Republican voters say “effective communicators and campaigners” describes Republican leadership a fair amount, versus 34% of Democratic voters who feel that way about Democratic leadership.

[1] Defined as those who say they vote at least occasionally and when they do, typically vote for Republican candidates

[2] Defined as those who say they vote at least occasionally and when they do, typically vote for Democratic candidates

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About the Study

These are some of the findings of a USA Today/Ipsos poll, conducted between August 18 – 22, 2022. For this survey, a sample of 2,345 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample includes 800 Republican voters, 1,031 Democratic voters, and 514 voters that don’t vote for either party or are non-voters.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panelpartner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2019 American Community Survey data, except for 2020 vote history, which comes from the Federal Election Commission. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education, and past vote.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=2,345, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-4.0 percentage points).

The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for Republican voters, plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for Democratic voters and plus or minus 5.3 percentage points for voters that don’t vote for either party or are non-voters.

For more information on this news release, please contact: 

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
Chris.jackson@ipsos.com  

Mallory Newall
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 374-2613
mallory.newall@ipsos.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest Insights and Analytics company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP http://www.ipsos.com

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