A new poll released by Gallup on Monday reveals that more Americans are likely to support the Republican Party than the Democratic Party toward the end of 2021 than any time since 1995.
Forty-seven percent of Americans described themselves as Republicans or Republican-leaning to Gallup between October 1 and December 31, 2021, compared to 42% who described themselves as Democrats or Democratic-leaning, the largest gap the pollster has measured in favor of Republicans since the first quarter of 1991.
The results of the poll shows the dramatic flip from the first quarter of 2021, when 49% of Americans identified themselves as Democrats or Democratic-leaning, compared to only 40% identifying themselves as Republic leaning. That margin was also the largest Gallup has measured in favor of Democrats in the poll’s history.
Gallup polled 12,416 adults across all 50 states and Washington, D.C. throughout 2021, with a margin of error of 1%.
The approval ratings for President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party collapsed over the second half of 2021. It started in August, as the fall of Afghanistan dropped Biden’s approval from just above 50% to 41.% in the RealClearPolitics average. During the same time period, Republican captured the Virginia House of Delegates and governorship, and flipped seven seats in the New Jersey state legislature.
President Biden’s huge decline has been fueled by the continued exodus of Hispanic voters from the Democratic Party. A poll conducted in early December found that nearly 70% of Hispanic voters support the tax cuts associated with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, while 55% of Hispanics support increased spending on border security.
Other recent polls have shown that Republicans are in a position to take back both congressional chambers. Voters surveyed by USA Today in November preferred generic Republican candidates to Democratic ones by 8 points, while the Democrats’ signature Build Back Better social package was opposed by more than 50% of voters in key swing districts.
If these polls are correct, and the numbers hold where they were at the 2021 year ending, it will result in a sweeping victory for Republican in the midterm elections.