On Tuesday, opinion writer Tom Del Beccaro wrote a piece on FoxNews.com outlining the 10 “tea leaves” that point to a huge Trump victory on November 3rd.
Although the mainstream media polls show Biden winning by “double digits”, Beccaro reveals why those polls shouldn’t be trusted.
His first two “tea leaves” include a surge of voter registration in Pennsylvania and Florida.
“In 2016, Pennsylvania and its 20 Electoral College votes were key to President Trump’s victory. He won Pennsylvania by a slim 44,292 votes out of nearly 6 million. That November, the Democrats had nearly a 900,000 voter registration advantage over the Republicans. That number is now down to a 700,000 registration advantage and has narrowed by 100,000 in the last year,” Beccaro writes.
“No one can logically say that improves the Democrats’ chances to win Pennsylvania in 2020”
He is noticing a similar trend with Florida, another crucial swing state.
“In 2008, Democrats held nearly a 700,000 voter registration advantage and Barack Obama carried the state by 236,148 votes. By 2012 that advantage slipped to 558,272 registrations and Obama won there by 74,309 votes,” Beccaro adds.
In 2016, Democrats had a 327,483 registration advantage and Trump carried the state by 112,991 votes.
“Now the Democrats’ voter registration advantage is down nearly 200,000 to just a 134,242 lead, which Politico called a “historic low”, he concludes.
Next, he discusses the surge of minority voters across the board who are flocking towards Trump:
Trump could well receive a historic level of support from Latino Voters in 2020. In Florida, a NBC/Marist poll had Trump leading among Latinos 50% to 46% over Biden, whereas, in 2016, Hillary won among Latinos in Florida 62% to 35%. That would be a 15% swing toward Trump if it held up on Election Day.
In September, according to polling done by Rasmussen, Trump’s approval rating among African Americans reached 45%. Keep in mind that President Trump only received 8% of the Black vote in 2016. If Trump received just 16% of the Black vote this November, let alone an even higher number, that would all but secure states like Michigan for Trump.
Next, Beccaro points to the historical fact that candidates who push for HIGHER TAXES tend to have a harder time winning elections:
President Jimmy Carter lost to challenger Ronald Reagan, Walter Mondale lost to President Reagan, Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush 41 and then 41 lost his reelection after his tax increase became a reality. George W. Bush beat Al Gore and then John Kerry.
Barack Obama promised to reduce taxes and he beat John McCain who was not a tax cutter. Obviously, President Trump offered tax cuts while running against, and beating, Hillary Clinton.
Joe Biden, on the other hand, is pushing for the largest tax increase in history.
Number 6 on his list is all about the HUGE enthusiasm for Trump.
As the New York Post has reported, “just 46 percent of Biden voters in a recent Pew poll said that they strongly support him, compared to 66 percent of Trump’s base.”
That is a 20 point gap. In 2016, Trump had only a 13 point gap over Hillary. That increase of 7% bodes well for Trump, not Biden.
We were all witnesses to this enthusiasm gap in 2016. People were NOT excited to vote for Hillary, but they were PUMPED to vote for Trump! The same pattern is forming this year.
Number 7 on his list might be one of the biggest indicators that voting is ALREADY going well for Trump.
Beccaro says that the early voting numbers in Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin show promising signs:
National polling from Pew Research indicates that “55% of voters who plan to cast their ballot in person before Election Day support Biden, compared to 40% who support President Trump.”
However, in the key battleground states of Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin the early voting indicates that “registered Republicans are returning ballots at about the same rate as registered Democrats.” The parties are even in Michigan, Democrats up 2% in Wisconsin and the Republicans up 2% in Ohio.
You can read his final 3 reasons below.