In the latest Emerson College poll, former President Donald Trump is inching closer to a staggering 60 percent of national support, while his primary and caucus rivals struggle to break into single digits. Simultaneously, Trump maintains a razor-thin lead over President Joe Biden in a closely contested hypothetical general election matchup.
In the high-stakes Republican presidential primary race, Trump commands a commanding 59 percent of the response, placing him over 50 points ahead of his closest contenders. Former Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida each secure a modest eight percent of support, while former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey is trailing closely at four percent. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Vice President Mike Pence are also contenders, each drawing three percent of the vote. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota, conservative radio host Larry Elder, businessman Perry Johnson, and former Governor Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas each claim one percent of the response. A remaining ten percent of respondents remain undecided.
In a hypothetical face-off between the leading contenders of both major political parties, Trump maintains a narrow advantage over Biden, leading 47 percent to 45 percent, a margin that falls well within the credibility interval of ±2.4 percent. In this scenario, eight percent of respondents are undecided. Notably, Trump performs better with independents, leading 44 percent to 40 percent, and holds an edge with younger voters.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, noted, “While the poll reflects voters under 30 breaking for Biden by significant margins in 2020, 45% of voters under 30 support Trump in 2024 in this survey while 43% support Biden. These voters are most likely to be undecided among all age groups, at 12%.”
The poll also explored hypothetical matchups between progressive Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Trump, as well as an imaginary race pitting former 2012 presidential candidate and outgoing Senator Mitt Romney of Utah against Biden.
In the Trump-Sanders contest, Trump leads with 48 percent to Sanders’ 40 percent, maintaining substantial support among voters under 30.
“Even with progressive candidate Bernie Sanders on the ballot, the election is statistically similar among this group, 45% supporting Sanders and 42% Trump,” observed Kimball.
In a matchup featuring Biden and Romney, Biden holds a ten-point lead with 40 percent of the response compared to Romney’s 30 percent, with roughly three in ten voters still undecided.
Emerson College polling surveyed 1,578 registered voters nationally from October 16 to 17, with a credibility interval of ±2.4 percentage points for the full sample. The interval may vary for the GOP primary portion of the survey, although specific numbers were not provided.
