Who blew up the Russian Nord Stream gas pipelines? It’s a question that many are asking, and many believe it was the American military under the pathetic leadership of President Joe Biden.
Every nation who could be responsible for this week’s Nord Stream I and Nord Stream II undersea pipeline explosions has denied its involvement. However as Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Kommersant newspaper on Thursday, “It is very difficult to imagine that such a terrorist action could take place without the involvement of some state.”
Whether the United States or others want to admit it, he’s right.
The Baltic Sea waters there are very shallow, still, those behind these explosions would have had to have exact knowledge of where the pipelines were laid, the pipelines’ vulnerability, and the means to deliver explosives to them.
This makes it almost guaranteed that a state actor was responsible. The most obvious means of carrying out this attack would be mine-laying, deep-sea divers armed with high explosives. While submarines, aircraft, drones, or missiles could also be involved, they would raise a much higher likelihood of detection and recovery of the weapons debris.
So who is responsible?
Most Western governments suspect it was Russia, however that doesn’t make any sense. Why would Russia blow up the pipelines leading to Germany and paying them billions of dollars and funding their efforts around the globe? According to western governments a NATO member would be highly unlikely to risk the trust-based alliance by unilaterally disrupting energy flows and risking an environmental disaster.
Poland seeks tougher western sanctions and actions against Russia, but also wants the United States favoritism as it confronts unrelated political challenges with the European Union.
Britain has taken a hawkish approach to Ukraine but would not risk alienating its European-U.S. alliances.
The Baltic states are heavily reliant on NATO’s protection umbrella and would not risk alienating their allies.
The Ukraine lacks the technical means to carry out this attack without being detected and would not risk alienating the western allies funding their losing war efforts.
The United States risk an attack that caused a major breach in Western relations, and that leaves Russia.
It however seems absurd as we’ve explained that Russia would blow up its own pipelines and associated gas export market. However that is to consider and look at this incident through Western governments eyes.
Nord Stream II was completely and belatedly suspended by Germany following Russia’s February invasion of the Ukraine. Putin recently shut down Nord Stream I to send a message to Western alliances to ease up and weaken their sanctions.
Shortly after the explosions a British submarine-hunting P-8 aircraft flew near the Kattegat North Sea-Baltic Sea boundary. These flights are regularly employed for both training purposes and to search for Russian submarines transiting from the Baltic Sea’s shallow waters to the deeper North Sea wanters bounding Norway.
Russia has called a U.N. Security Council Meeting on the explosions and the meeting took place on Friday. Moscow is likely to blame the United States and or the Ukraine. Russia might hope to degrade U.S. and European alignment on Ukraine, while consolidating domestic support for its escalating shutdown with the West.
Putin has made nuclear threats, this explosion ramps up fear and paranoia in the minds of the West.
But the real question remains, how do we get evidence of who’s actually responsible?
The following is from The Washington Examiner:
First, a maritime investigation of the damaged pipelines. There are two areas of interest: one approximately 31 nautical miles northeast of Denmark’s Bornholm Island and one 13 miles southeast of that island. A British-flagged civilian survey vessel is in the southeastern area, and various European warships/coast guard vessels are operating in both areas. This maritime search will entail physical inspections of the pipelines and attempts to recover samples of any explosives/devices. Though the undersea site and sea currents make this effort far more complicated than it would be on land, successful recovery efforts may help identify who uses the devices involved. Of course, those responsible may have used devices used by another nation to preemptively deflect blame.
Next up, there are various tracking data that will show which vessels were loitering in the area of the explosions in recent days, weeks, and months. Investigators will seek to identify the ownership of these vessels to determine if they are used for covert purposes. In response to escalating Russian threats to Sweden’s Gotland Island and the omnipresent Baltic Sea-bordered Russian exclave of Kaliningrad (an effective fortress outpost), many Western intelligence assets are focused on the Baltic Sea.
The final investigative element will be that of standard intelligence-gathering from spies and signal intelligence. Expect intelligence services to take another look at any intercepts that didn’t make much sense before the explosion. They will also reexamine metadata in relation to indicators of intelligence tradecraft that recently pinged in and around the Baltic Sea.
What evidence of value will be collected is unclear. But whoever was responsible for these incidents will hope the investigation fails to establish a confident attribution of their guilt.
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