According to a survey conducted by Arizent, the publisher of American Banker, a solid majority, 56%, of bankers believe the most likely outcome of the election is Trump beating Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
Also, 64% of bankers believe a Trump victory would be the best outcome for their industry, and 51% said a Republican sweep of the White House, House, and Senate would be the best for the industry.
Bankers are not pollsters. But “They have a pretty good pulse of their communities and their business markets, so they do have a unique insight as to what’s going on around them,” Brian Gardner, an analyst at KBW, told American Banker.
“Banks have gotten a significant reduction in the corporate tax rate, and they’ve seen the regulatory environment improve under President Trump, so it’s not surprising that the status quo is preferable to the unknown,” Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group, told American Banker.
Lowering of the corporate tax rate in the 2017 GOP tax overhaul benefited banks. Cutting of the regulations imposed by the Dodd-Frank Act by Trump, assisted many banks.
Arizent also publishes Accounting Today, which reported that 55% of accountants back Trump while 38% support Biden.
With Joe Biden vowing to increase the corporate tax from 21% to 28%, and his vow to restore the Dodd-Frank regulations undone by President Trump, a Biden presidency could be bad for banks’ bottom line.
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